Business and Marketing

IDC forecasts an 11% rise in global shipments this year, down from around 28% in 2014. Slow Chinese and Android growth is the reason.

At Apple, big screens mean big sales.

Worldwide smartphone shipments will increase by about 11% this year, a notable dip in growth from 2014 when sales increased more than 27%. Of course, the proof will be in the pudding. International Data Corporation's “Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker,” which issued today's forecast, fell well short last year with a prediction of a 12% increase.

IDC highlighted two reasons for its conservative call. It forecasts just a 2.5% increase in China, the first time the country's smartphone growth will lag the global aggregate. Android device sales velocity, too, will be slower than world at large at a pace of 8.5%. Some 30% of all smartphones are purchased in China.

“Two fundamental segments driving recent growth are starting to slow," said Phone Tracker Program Director Ryan Reith. "Smartphone shipments in China actually declined year-over-year in the first quarter, showing that the largest market in the world has reached a level of maturity where rapid growth will be harder to achieve. This has implications for Android because China has been a critical market for Android shipments in recent years.”

According to IDC, Apple confronted a similar scenario between 2012 and 2014, but reversed its fortunes with the iPhone 6 and the shift to models with bigger screens. Prospects continue to look rosy for Apple in the coming year. "There's no question that a large chunk of Apple's installed base is still using older models, which leaves continued growth opportunity in the second half of 2015 and beyond," Reith said.

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